[Isifinyezo] Izintengo zikakotini zasekhaya noma zizoqhubeka nokuba nokushaqeka okuphansi. Isikhathi esiphezulu semakethe yendwangu siyasondela, kodwa isidingo sangempela asikakaveli, amathuba okuvula amabhizinisi endwangu asalokhu ehla, futhi intengo yentambo kakotini iyaqhubeka nokwehla. Njengamanje, ukukhula kukakotini okusha kwasekhaya kuhle, ukwanda komkhiqizo kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kungashintshile futhi isikhathi sokufakwa kuhlu singase sibe ngaphambi konyaka odlule. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isilinganiso sentela eshelelayo yokungenisa ukotini sizokhishwa maduze, futhi ukwehla kwengcindezi kumanani kakotini wasekhaya ngeke kwehle.
I. Ukubuyekezwa kwentengo kwaleli sonto
Kusukela ngo-August 12 kuya ku-16, isilinganiso sentengo yokukhokhela inkontileka eyinhloko yesikhathi esizayo sikakotini sase-Zhengzhou sasingu-13,480 yuan/ton, sehle ngo-192 yuan/ton kusukela ngesonto eledlule, sehle ngo-1.4%; Inkomba kazwelonke yentengo kakotini, emele intengo yemakethe ye-lint yebanga elijwayelekile ezweni elikhulu, elinganiselwa ku-14,784 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-290 yuan/ton kusukela ngesonto eledlule, noma u-1.9%. Intengo emaphakathi yenkontileka kakotini yaseNew York yesikhathi esizayo engu-67.7 cents/phawundi, ikhuphuke ngo-0.03 cents/phawundi kusukela ngesonto eledlule, ngokuyisisekelo isicaba; Isilinganiso senani lentengo yenkomba kakotini yamazwe ngamazwe (M) emele isilinganiso senani lentengo elingenisiwe likakotini ongenisiwe ethekwini elikhulu laseShayina lalingu-76.32 cents/phawundi, likhuphuke ngo-0.5 cent/phawundi ukusuka ngesonto eledlule, kanye nezindleko zokungenisa ezingu-RMB 13,211 yuan/ton ( kubalwe ngenani elingu-1%, ngaphandle kwengxubevange yase-Hong Kong nempahla ethunyelwayo), inyuke ngo-88 yuan/ton kusukela ngesonto eledlule, okunyuke ngo-0.7%. Intengo kakotini yasekhaya ingama-yuan angu-1573/thani ngaphezu kwenani likakotini lamazwe ngamazwe, elingu-378 yuan/ton elincane kunesonto eledlule. Isilinganiso senani lentengo yasekhaya ye-C32S yentambo evamile yekama kakotini engu-21,758 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-147 yuan/ton kusukela ngeviki eledlule. Intengo yentambo evamile ingu-22222 yuan/ton, efana neviki eledlule. Intengo ye-polyester staple fiber ingu-7488 yuan/ton, yehle ngo-64 yuan/ton kusukela ngesonto eledlule.
Okwesibili, umbono wemakethe wesikhathi esiseduze
(1) Imakethe yamazwe ngamazwe
Kuvele izici ezithandekayo, amanani kakotini noma azozinza. Umbiko woMnyango Wezolimo wase-US wango-Agasti wokunikezela nokufunwa ubikezele ukukhiqizwa kukakotini wase-US wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.29 ngo-2024/25, ukwehla ngamathani angu-410,000 kusukela ngenyanga edlule, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yesomiso esisanda kuba sibi kakhulu esifundeni esikhiqiza ukotini sase-US. I-USDA Drought Monitor ibika ukuthi cishe amaphesenti angu-22 ezindawo ezikhiqiza ukotini ahlaselwa isomiso kusukela kuleli sonto, kusukela kumaphesenti angu-13 ngesonto eledlule. Ngokwezibalo zoMnyango Wezolimo waseNdiya, kusukela ngo-Agasti 8, 2024/25 indawo yokutshala ukotini yaseNdiya yayiyizigidi eziyi-166 mu, yehle ngo-8.9% unyaka nonyaka, kanti ukukhiqizwa kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla ngamathani angama-370,000 unyaka nonyaka. unyaka. Ngaleso sikhathi, idatha yoMnyango Wezohwebo wase-US ibonise ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezitolo zase-US kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1 ngoJulayi kusukela enyangeni edlule, izinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2023, okwenza imakethe ingakhathazeki kakhulu ngokuwohloka komnotho wase-US, ukuhlinzeka ngosekelo lwemizwa ethuthukisiwe emakethe yezimpahla. Ngokombiko we-United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, kusukela ngomhlaka-6 Agasti, i-ICE cotton futures commercial (abakhiqizi, abadayisi, abacubungula) inesikhundla eside esingu-1156, okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngo-2019 ukuze iguqule inetha, okusho ukuthi izimali zemboni zikholelwa ukuthi ukotini wamazwe ngamazwe. amanani noma ufake uhla lokulinganisa oluphansi. Kuhlanganiswe nalezi zici ezingenhla, amanani kakotini wamazwe ngamazwe kulindeleke ukuthi azinze.
(2) Imakethe yasekhaya
Isidingo esiphansi asibonanga ukuqala, amanani kakotini aqhubeka nokuguquguquka ngezinga eliphansi. Ngokusho kweNational Bureau of Statistics, ukuthengiswa kwezingubo zokugqoka, izicathulo, izigqoko kanye nemikhiqizo yendwangu e-China ngoJulayi bekungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-93.6, kwehle ngo-5.2% unyaka nonyaka; Imininingwane yeCustoms ibonise ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu nezingubo zaseChina ngoJulayi bekungamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-26.8, kwehle ngo-0.5% unyaka nonyaka. Kusukela ngo-Agasti, imakethe yasekhaya ibheke phambili esikhathini esizayo "segolide eyisishiyagalolunye yesiliva eyishumi" yesidingo sendabuko, kodwa ama-oda awakabonisi izimpawu zokuthuthuka. Ngokocwaningo lukazwelonke lokuqapha imakethe kakotini, ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti kwakuyisampula yocwaningo lwamabhizinisi ezindwangu ukuvula amathuba angama-73.6%, phansi ngamaphesenti angu-0.8 kusukela ngenyanga edlule, izinhlobo zezintambo ezimahhadla kuphela ezibonisa izimpawu ezithile zokufudumala. Isimo sokuvuka nokubona emakethe sinzima, kuleli sonto amanani entengo kakotini wasekhaya ayaqhubeka nokwehla. Njengamanje, ukukhula kukakotini kungcono, kulindeleke ukuthi isikhathi sokufakwa kuhlu kukakotini singaba ngaphambi konyaka odlule, kanti nenani lentela lokushelela kokungenisa ukotini selizokhishwa, okungase kudale ingcindezi eyengeziwe emananini kakotini wasekhaya, futhi ithuba lokuqhubeka nokushaqeka okuphansi kukhulu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-19-2024